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China unprepared for time bomb of aging population

  中國對於老年人口的時間炸彈尚未準備好

2006/12/13

By Peter Harmsen BEIJING, AFP

China is woefully unprepared for the task of caring for a rapidly aging population, a challenge that will hit with full force within just a few years, a ranking official warned Tuesday.

  高層官員在星期二警告說"中國對於快速成長的老年人口的照護工作並沒有作準備。該項挑戰將在未來幾年沖擊所有勞動人力。"

As Chinese society faces the unique situation of growing old before it grows rich, the government has a window of opportunity that will close in about a generation from now to come up with lasting solutions, he said.

   在中國社會變得越來越富有前，它正面臨一個特殊的情況─人口老齡化，政府有機會……

"We have to seize the opportunity before the year 2030. We cannot afford to miss this golden opportunity," Li Bengong, the vice director of the China National Working Commission on Aging, told a briefing in Beijing.

　我們必須在２０３０年前就抓住這個機會。我們無法承擔錯失這個黃金的機會。　 

"Everything must be completed in terms of addressing the problem of the aging of the population before 2030."

  "在2030年前，有關老齡人口的所有問題都需要解決。"

The reason, he said, is that before then, more than half of the population will be in the labor force, supporting those who are either too young or too old to work. But afterwards, it will be less than half.

  他表示"這個原因是由於有一半的勞動人口需扶養年紀太小或是年紀太大而無法工作的親人。但不久之後，這些勞動人口將少於一半。"

As one example of China's lack of infrastructure to cope with the looming crisis, Li said China currently had only 1.5 million beds in old-age homes, while an estimated seven million elderly hoped to be accommodated there.

  李表示"就如同中國缺乏公共建設來處理這個危機的例子。中國目前只有1百50萬張床可提供給老年人，可是估計有7百萬老年人口需要提供膳宿。

"The difference between supply and demand is extremely large, and we most urgently have to increase the number of beds," he said.

  李表示"供需之間的差異相當的大，而我們急切的想要增加可提供的床數。"

China currently has 144 million people who have already passed their 60th birthday, accounting for half of Asia's entire population in that age group, according to official Chinese statistics.

  根據中國官方的數據，中國目前有1億4仟4百萬人超過60歲。這個人數是亞洲超過60歲人口數的一半。

Another 100 million will be added roughly every 15 years to hit about 437 million in 2050, the statistics show.

  這個數據顯示：未來每15年就會大約增加一億老齡人口，而在2050年時會達到4億3仟7佰萬老齡人口。

The situation has come about as better nutrition and improved health care have helped people live longer lives, while birth control and changing cultural norms account for fewer young people.

 隨著較好的養營和改善的健康照護幫助人們活得更久，這樣的情形就會隨之發生。

Aging is a long-term trend affecting a growing part of the world, most notably in Europe, but China is in some ways unique.

  老化是個影響全世界成長的長期趨勢。最顯著地是在歐洲，但是中國在某些方面則比較獨特。

China says it reached the status of an aging society, which it defines as a society where more than 10 percent of the population is 60 years or older, in 1999. As late as 1982, the proportion was just five percent.

 中國表示：目前己達到了一個老齡社會的狀態。老齡社會的定義在1999年為超過60歲人口數是佔總人口數的10%以上。在1982年前是佔總人口數的5%。

"Within a mere 18 years, we completed a historical transition that it took decades or even more than a century for developed countries to complete," Li said.

The economic consequences of China's rapid change are unsettling, according to Li.

"China has become an aging society before it became a modernized society," he said.

Normally, a nation will not enter into the ranks of an aging society until per capita gross domestic product is between 5,000 and 10,000 dollars, but in China it has happened while it was only about 800 dollars.

"We belong to the low- to middle-income countries, and our economic means to deal with aging are limited," Li said.

China also marks an exception because of a heavier concentration of elderly in the countryside, while in other nations people in the cities tend to be older on average.

This phenomenon, which is most likely linked to the influx of young migrant workers from rural to urban areas, is expected to last until 2040, according to the Chinese government.

It is not just in China that economists discuss the long-term implications of aging populations.

While older populations generally tend to contribute less to economic growth than younger ones, the net impact of rising average lifespans is open to debate.

For instance, some economists argue that older populations also mean less delinquency, reducing the cost to society of crime prevention.

1.time bomb 時間炸彈

2.high ranking official 高層官員

3. infrastructure  公共建設(如鐵路、公路、下水道等)

4. health care 健康照護

5. birth control 控制生育

6. cultural norms 文化規範